Overview
The Forecast Rainfall module provides short-to-medium range precipitation forecasts for the IGAD region at three temporal scales:
- Weekly — 7-day accumulated rainfall forecast.
- Monthly — Probabilistic monthly forecast.
- Seasonal — Probabilistic seasonal forecast.
Data Layers
Weekly Forecast
- Total — Absolute rainfall amount in millimetres (mm).
- Anomaly — Departure from the long-term mean (LTM), expressed in mm or %.
- Exceptional — Probability of exceeding historical extremes at 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile thresholds.
Monthly & Seasonal Forecast
- Probabilistic forecast — Likelihood of below-normal, normal, and above-normal rainfall categories.
How to Use
- Navigate to Early Warning → Forecast Rainfall → Weekly and choose Total, Anomaly, or Exceptional.
- Use the date selector to pick a forecast date. Only dates for which data has been loaded will be available.
- Hover over or click on a country/region on the map to see the value for that area.
- Use the Table tab to view numerical values by country and region.
Data Source
Forecast data is sourced from GeoTIFF raster files retrieved from an FTP server and processed using zonal statistics (rasterstats) against the IGAD region boundaries. Files are stored under media/geodata/rain/forecast/.
Data Collection
python manage.py collect_rainfall # Weekly forecast
python manage.py collect_month_rainfall_forecast # Monthly forecast
python manage.py collect_season_rainfall_forecast # Seasonal forecast